Overview

Created in 2021, AI 2027 is a research-based scenario and forecasting initiative developed by the AI Futures Project, a U.S.-based nonprofit research organization focused on understanding the likely trajectories and societal implications of advanced artificial intelligence (AI).

Released in 2025, AI 2027 presents a detailed, time-sequenced scenario that explores how increasingly capable AI systems could evolve through 2027, including pathways that may lead toward artificial general intelligence (AGI). The project is designed as a foresight tool to support strategic planning, public discourse, and policy discussions about the opportunities and risks associated with rapid AI advancement.

Rather than offering a single prediction, AI 2027 provides structured narrative scenarios grounded in trend analysis, expert elicitation, and forecasting methods. The initiative seeks to make complex AI futures more tangible for policymakers, researchers, educators, and the broader public by illustrating plausible development pathways, governance challenges, economic impacts, and social consequences. The initiative aims to:

• Explore plausible near-term futures for advanced AI development using structured forecasting and scenario planning methods.
• Illuminate potential societal, economic, and governance implications of rapid AI capability growth.
• Encourage informed dialogue about AI oversight, transparency, and public-interest governance.
• Provide an accessible reference point for organizations engaging in strategic planning around AI-related disruption.

Key features:

• Scenario-Based Forecasting
  • Chronological scenario describing potential milestones in AI capability development, deployment, and institutional response between 2025 and 2027.
  • Scenario integrates technical AI research trends, compute infrastructure projections, investment patterns, and governance dynamics.
• Dual-Pathway Futures
  • Explores alternative outcome pathways, including futures characterized by accelerated AI integration and others shaped by policy interventions, coordination efforts, or risk-mitigation strategies.
• Public-Interest Orientation
  • Emphasizes transparency and broad accessibility.
  • Materials published openly online.
  • Materials intended to support public-interest research, policy engagement, and educational use.

The initiative is led by a core team of researchers and forecasters with expertise in AI governance, technical AI capability forecasting, scenario design, risk analysis, and public-interest technology policy. Team members bring prior experience from front-line AI research organizations, AI policy institutes, forecasting research programs, and technology ethics initiatives. The group combines quantitative forecasting methods, scenario planning techniques, and cross-disciplinary analysis to construct detailed, time-sequenced projections of AI development and societal impact. External collaborators contribute specialized knowledge in AI infrastructure trends, economic modeling, and narrative scenario construction, strengthening both the technical grounding and accessibility of the work.

Examples of team member's work:

• AI 2027. Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean. April 3, 2025
• Compute Forecast. Romeo Dean. April 3, 2025
• Timelines Forecast. Nikola Jurkovic, Eli Lifland. April 3, 2025
• Takeoff Forecast. Daniel Kokotajlo, Eli Lifland. April 3, 2025
• AI Goals Forecast. Daniel Kokotajlo. April 3, 2025
• Security Forecast. Romeo Dean. April 3, 2025
• 4 Ways to Advance Transparency in Frontier AI Development. Dean Ball & Daniel Kokotajlo. Time, October 15, 2024
• Tabletop Exercise, facilitated for 200+ people, including experts and policymakers

Background 

AI 2027 provides a structured exploration of how rapid advances in AI may reshape workforce demand, automation patterns, skill requirements, organizational structures, and institutional governance. As such, it offers a foresight resource for educators, workforce planners, credential designers, employers, and policymakers preparing for AI-driven disruption across learning and labor systems.

Partners / Funders

• Sponsoring Organization
  • AI 2027 is produced by the AI Futures Project, a U.S.-registered 501(c)(3) nonprofit research organization.
  • Organization’s work is supported primarily through philanthropic donations and research grants, rather than corporate or government sponsorship.
• Collaborating Organizations
  • Technical infrastructure and design support for the AI 2027 web platform provided through collaboration with external nonprofit technology and research partners. Independent forecasting collaborators contributed to probability estimates and trend analysis components within the scenario.
• Funding Model
  • Publicly available information indicates the AI Futures Project relies on individual donors and charitable giving platforms to support its research activities.

Resources

AI Futures Project. (n.d.). About the AI Futures Project. AI Futures Project. https://ai-futures.org/about

AI Futures Project. (n.d.). AI Futures Project. https://ai-futures.org/

AI 2027. (n.d.). AI 2027: Forecasting the trajectory of advanced artificial intelligence. https://ai-2027.com/